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FEB-MARCH 2015
II
the South is increasingly evident: the
GDP of the latter is almost half of the
richest part of the country. With that
it implies. And “even if” you could
draw up a long list. And the sky on the
horizon is not so clear of clouds. Just
have a look at situation in Ukraine fro
example. Economists, who blunders in
recent years have taken, you behind the
unpredictability of the situation: “Who
would have imagined three years ago
that the price of oil would be halved?”
Say
However a little ‘confidence does not
hurt. That’s also because we are on
the eve of an extraordinary event such
as Expo, which is remarkable because
it comes once every 150 years. And
extraordinary because for six months in
Milan will focus the attention of much
of the world. The numbers, as you all
know, are bombastic. 20 million visitors
expected. There are great expectations
by operators hospitality, which have a
great opportunity not only to immediate
business (but be careful not to make
money on the event) but all together to
become ambassadors of the food and
Italian style. Here, I think this is the
great distinction of Expo: the fact that
they all work together to consolidate
and enhance the best that can offer Italy.
It is an investment in the future; we
need so much objectively, after years
in which we have been turned in upon
ourselves without fail and be able to
watch over the door of our house. Will
need all the energy to be able to present
the best occasion of the six-month
Expo, but also to build after the Expo,
starting from the use of the exhibition
area, ending with the follow up to the
contacts that inevitably you will from
May to October. If Expo will give us, as
companies operating in the hospitality,
the opportunity to “do”, it’s up to us the
ability to not miss out and build for the
future.
At page 6
News
Economy and
consumption: signs
of recovery
The barometer of the Italian economy is
an improvement. During the conference
organized by Consumi2015 Tuttofood,
world food exhibition of Fiera Milano
(3-6 May), Fedele De Novellis, chief
economist at ref.Ricerche, states that
“perhaps we can not yet say that we
have moved on pretty stable but at least
you will stop this year and next the long
series of negative indicators that have
marked the last long crisis. But only
notable exception, unemployment will
remain high. “
According ref.Ricerche gross domestic
product will increase by 0.7% in 2015
and 1.1% in 2016, supported by a
recovery in consumption. Exports
further enhance their excellent
performance and imports will
grow driven by the revival without
undermining the balance of trade,
which will remain positive and high
(around 70 billion) thanks to the decline
in oil prices. The constraint of the 3% of
GDP deficit in the relationship will be
respected and inflation will be zeroing
this year and 0.7% in 2016.
The convergence of systemic factors
favorable recently emerged, the
weakening of the euro to the collapse
in oil prices, from relaxing fiscal
convergence to the quantitative easing
of the European Central Bank), thus
seem to have created a more favorable
environment, contributing exit from the
tunnel in different ways: the descent
of oil has a significant impact on an
economy of processing; the favorable
euro-dollar, with the US recovery, is one
of the key drivers of exports; the easing
of the European Central Bank facilitates
credit and lowers production costs.
Is it all right then? Up to a certain
point. In this positive picture - warns
ref.Ricerche - no shortage risks. Two
particularly significant is the fall in
inflation expectations and the possible
VAT increase, according to the safeguard
clause already provided as part of
the descent of the deficit / GDP ratio,
according to the rules imposed by the
European public finance. If the Iva
magazine